Statistical research by Massachusetts Institute of Technology professor Arnold Barnett has found that leaving the middle seat empty on an airplane reduces the risk of COVID-19 infection to 1 in 7,700 from 1 in 4,300.

Barnett, in a new study, adds context to those odds by using a 1 percent mortality: The risk of dying from COVID-19 contracted on a filled-to-capacity flight is 1 in 430,000 and only 1 in 770,000 on a flight with empty middle seats.

So how do those odds sound? Compared to your risk of dying in a plane crash, about 1 in 34 million, maybe not so good. But Barnett, in the “COVID-19 Risk Among Airline Passengers: Should the Middle Seat Stay Empty?” study, used data from late June that suggested 1 in 120 Americans have COVID-19 on any given day — that’s 40,000 confirmed cases a day, or 1/120th/ of the country’s 330 million people.

“It is not clear that the risk of getting infected during  flight,” Barnett wrote in the study, published recently in MedRxiv, “is any higher than the risk associated with everyday activities during the pandemic.”

Since late June, except for July 4, passengers on U.S. airlines have averaged between 500,000 and 765,000 each day. Using Barnett’s model, if there were 500,000 passengers today, 116 would contract COVID-19 if flights were full and 65 if the middle seat remained empty.

United Airlines has no limited-capacity restrictions on its flights. American Airlines recently stopped blocking middle seats. Delta will limit capacity and clock middle seats through at least Sept. 30. Both United and American, however, allow passengers to change flights if their plane is fully booked. All airlines are also following new disinfecting routines.

As on the ground, surface cleanliness, hand-washing and social distancing remain the best ways to fight COVID-19 in the air. The airline industry has argued 6-foot social distancing is not possible on a plane. But Barnett’s model shows that added distance between plane passengers, even if not 6 feet, still reduces the risk of transmission.

Not feeling well? Call your healthcare provider for guidance and try to avoid going directly to an emergency department or urgent care center, as this could increase the chances of the disease spreading.

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