The numbers telling the COVID-19 story come out daily – how many people are tested, how many test positive, how many need hospitalization, how many go home or pass away.

Those figures have gotten worse as the story moves into its third month in Connecticut. As experts at Hartford HealthCare, in collaboration with scientists at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, believe the highest number of patients in the hospital for treatment of the virus has peaked, another number – the tally of people testing positive – will continue to rise.

That may seem alarming, or confusing, but Dr. Ajay Kumar, Hartford HealthCare’s chief clinical officer, urged patience and calm.

“As more tests are rolled out, we are going to see more cases,” he told reporters April 28 during a daily media briefing. “Yes, we have peaked in the hospital, but the number of cases will continue to climb.”

He explained that this assessment is based on the experiences in England and Germany, which are a few weeks ahead of the United States in the pandemic.

“It is not a bad thing. We want to know (who is infected),” Dr. Kumar said. “It’s nothing to panic about. We need to know where we are so we can continue social distancing and help manage hospital capacity.”

Social distancing practices, he has predicted, must continue into the fall as society slowly reopens.

“This is a long fight, a marathon,” he said.

Expanding the testing capabilities for COVID-19 is also essential going forward, he said. Hartford HealthCare, through a partnership with Quest Laboratories, expects to start doing about 2,000 tests a day, which Dr. Kumar called “a significant boost in testing capability.”

Hartford HealthCare-GoHealth Urgent Care centers will also be offering curbside testing. Hartford HealthCare is investigating more opportunities.

One of the current “wild cards,” Dr. Kumar noted, has been the explosion of cases at skilled-nursing and assisted-living facilities, where residents are older and generally have more underlying conditions leaving them at greater risk of infection and death. Testing at these facilities will be broadened as part of HHC’s plan.

Overall, expanded testing will help determine if “herd immunity” exists in the area. This means having a high percentage of people who have recovered from the virus and are unable to pass it to others. Dr. Kumar said herd immunity is important if there is a second wave of the virus, as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has predicted, in the fall.

“The concern is in the densely populated areas, how it can (flare) back up,” he said.

Not feeling well? Call your healthcare provider for guidance and try to avoid going directly to an emergency department or urgent care center, as this could increase the chances of the disease spreading.

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